Research teams have developed complex models which monitor social network conversations to predict success in programs.

Washington DC, United States (May 26, 2011). —The animated series South Park on Viacom Inc.'s Comedy Central station ranks 211 by number of TV viewers in the United States but, according to one ad firm's reckoning, it's really number 4.

The reason is that this show generated the highest number of online views —more than 10 times as many as the average number for other TV series.

At a time at which advertisers in the United States enter their negotiations with TV networks to compromise billions of dollars in advertising for the coming season, beginning in September, new kinds of indicators are emerging, ranging from those comments generated on social networks to economic statistics, to evaluate show reception.

These new benchmarks go beyond traditional measures on how many people are watching a show.

In return, they seek to give advertisers a more sophisticated picture of a program's impact on its audience.

Advertising research teams have developed complex models that follow conversations on social networks and video sites to predict which shows will be a success.

They also track how buying ad time during a particular show affects sales or how people perceive a brand.

Advertisers are seeking out these new tools partly because of this year's booming ad market and the substantial price increases expected for the coming season.

Companies say that's forcing them to be more selective on where to invest their ad budgets.

These new benchmarks are serving as a guide and negotiating tool, ad time buyers say.

"It will be a sellers' market. While for us is extremely helpful to sit at the table knowing what kind of programs, and at what cost, will drive our clients' business," says Michael Haggerty, director of marketing accountability and research at Universal McCann, a media-buying firm owned by Interpublic Group of Cos.

Publicis Groupe SA ad-buying firm Optimedia US compiles a list that ranks the size of audiences on TV, the Web and mobile devices.

This year, it intensified the social-media component of its rankings, because comments on TV series on Facebook and Twitter cause more and more people to watch them, says Optimedia US Chief Executive Antony Young.

As seen in the South Park case, some rankings on the Optimedia list differ strongly from those based on Nielsen Co rates.

Both firms rank Fox Broadcasting's American Idol No. 1. But Nielsen ranks the Fox musical Glee 55 by number of viewers, while Optimedia, taking note of the online activity the series generated, has it number 2.